RBA Rate Increases and What To Expect – A Financial Review from GIM Trading’s CEO, Stephen Cubis

As we review the December quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI), it’s evident that Australian inflation is continuing to moderate, albeit still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target of 2-3%. The trimmed mean CPI rose by 0.8% over the quarter, leading to an annual increase of 4.2%. This persistent inflation is a key reason the RBA has increased its cash rate to 4.35%—a critical benchmark for both borrowers and depositors.

“While we see signs of moderating inflation, we must remain cautious. The RBA’s aggressive cash rate adjustments have set a new landscape for investment,” states Stephen Cubis, GIM Trading’s CEO. “This shift significantly influences our approach to both equities and fixed interest assets.”

Broker responses to the latest CPI data indicate a consensus that rates may have peaked. Citi now anticipates a cash rate stabilizing at 4.35%, while Morgan Stanley predicts no cuts in 2024. “Investors must pay attention to these forecasts,” Cubis advises. “As we evaluate investment strategies, understanding market expectations for interest rates is crucial.”

The bond market’s response has been particularly notable, as expectations shift toward lower rates in 2024. “Historically, lower bond yields correlate with stronger stock performance. This relationship can create a favorable environment for equities, but it may also limit returns for those relying on fixed-income investments,” Cubis explains.

The recent downturn in yields—dropping from around 5% to approximately 4%—is indicative of market sentiment regarding the RBA’s future moves. “As yields decline, existing bonds become more attractive, which can push up their prices,” says Cubis. “Investors should closely monitor these trends, especially as we approach critical market events.”

With the RBA’s cash rate expected to decrease, there’s a growing consensus that term deposit rates may also shift downward. Current term deposit rates are nearing 5.25%, but this could change as competition among financial institutions increases. “If companies can borrow at lower rates, they may not need to offer high returns on term deposits,” warns Cubis.

The implications of the US Federal Reserve’s recent decisions further complicate the picture. As the Fed maintains its rate but drops hints of potential cuts, global markets will react accordingly. “It’s essential for Australian investors to consider the broader international landscape, especially as it relates to the Fed’s policy shifts,” he notes.

In conclusion, while the immediate future may seem uncertain, there are opportunities for informed investors. “At GIM Trading, our focus is on ensuring our clients are well-prepared to navigate these changes. By staying attuned to market dynamics and adjusting our strategies accordingly, we can better position ourselves for the year ahead,” Cubis affirms.

As we move into 2024, it’s vital for investors to stay alert and consider how these evolving conditions impact their financial decisions. The combination of moderating inflation, shifting interest rates, and global market trends creates both challenges and opportunities in the investment landscape.